Search

Patrick Clawson's paper examines US policy on sanctions against Iran. In particular, it analyzes the background and international reaction towards sanctions on the Islamic Republic, their economic and political impact, and the existence of alternative policies such as the European Union's 'critical dialogue'. The sharp divisions in opinion over sanctions both within the United States and among its allies are closely considered. Clawson states that although sanctions have had some modest accomplishments, they have come about at a price of strained inter-allied relations. Indeed, the disagreement between the US and the European Union over the efficacy of engaging Iran in a 'critical dialogue' is an example of this. Given the present domestic politics in both Iran and the US Clawson does not foresee a significant breakthrough in relations between the two nations. He believes the US will maintain sanctions on Iran for the indefinite future, and that the current level of hostility between the two powers will endure. Even with the impact that US sanctions have had on the Iranian economy, the author remains unconvinced that Tehran has any intentions of altering its policies.

Exploring continuities and changes, this book provides the historical backdrop crucial to understanding how Iranian pride and sense of victimization combine to make its politics contentious and potentially dangerous.

Getting Ready for a Nuclear Iran Dr. Joel J. Sokolsky Mr. Henry D. Sokolski Mr. Patrick Clawson Iran United States United Kingdom European Union France Germany Israel Saudi Arabia Persian Gulf Turkey Egypt Iraq Syria nuclear proliferation ballistic missiles Montreux Convention Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty International Atomic Energy Agency uranium enrichment plutonium reprocessing Dimona The Prevention of Incidents at Sea Agreement of 1972 INCSEA sea control Straits of Hormuz oil terrorism nuclear weapons deterrence containment economic sanctions Begin Doctrine Lausanne Convention liquefied natural gas Abu Masa Greater and Lesser Tunbs United Arab Emirates OPEC Hizbullah oil pipelines centrifuges surgical strikes nuclear safeguards verification compliance Middle East Busheir reactors nuclear power Homeland Security Irregular Challenges Southwest Asia Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran

The monetary history of a country provides important insights into its economic development, as well as its political and social history. This book is the first detailed study of Iran's monetary history from the advent of the Safavid dynasty in 1501 to the end of Qajar rule in 1925. Using an array of previously unpublished sources in ten languages, the authors consider the specific monetary conditions in Iran's modern history, covering the use of ready money and its circulation, the changing conditions of the country's mints and the role of the state in managing money. Throughout the book, the authors also consider the larger regional and global economic context within which the Iranian economy operated. As the first study of Iran's monetary history, this book will be essential reading for researchers of Iranian and economic history.

The Islamic Republic in Iran no longer has the broad popular support it commanded in the 1980s. The middle aged (especially veterans of the Iraq war) and the young are alienated from at least some aspects of the system. Iranian politicians are deeply divided about domestic policy issues, such as cultural liberalization and economic reform. Disputes about these issues, rather than foreign policy concerns, are likely to occupy center stage. While an Iranian opening to the West could be broadly popular, it would infuriate the vocal and influential minority for which anti-Americanism is a central principle of Khomeini's legacy. Iran is likely to continue its dual-track foreign policy: proclaiming its desire for normal relations with its neighbors while engaging in destabilizing behavior.

Energy supply trends are good for Western security. Dependence on the volatile Persian Gulf may increase only slightly, as additional supplies come from stable pro-Western areas, such as Norway and Latin America. Also, the cost of producing oil is dropping thanks to the information revolution. In spite of East Asia's rapid growth, world oil demand is unlikely to grow each year by more than 1.5-2.0 million barrels per day (mbd). East Asian growth is concentrated in industries that use little energy. Oil demand growth in both China and the former Soviet Union will be modest as they shut or modernize energy-wasting heavy industries. Market forces increasingly determine what happens in the energy business, except in the Caspian basin where geopolitical factors will determine whether the region's rich oil and gas resources will be brought to market. An energy security issue for the coming decade will be adjusting to the next energy trade pattern, in which East Asia and the Persian Gulf become more tightly tied-each more reliant on the other.