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En un mundo globalizado y ultra-vigilado donde la libertad de expresión resulta ofensiva, un grupo de amigos de edad madura se reúnen a platicar sobre lo que extrañan del mundo de antaño y las cosas que no les gustan del mundo presente, hasta que deciden tomar el futuro de la humanidad y ponerlo en manos de Bobby, una inteligencia artificial diseñada para no hacer cosas malas.

Abstract: Real GDP and oil prices are decomposed into common stochastic trend and cycle processes using structural time series models. Potential real GDP is represented by the level of the trend component of real GDP. The potential rate of growth of real GDP is represented by the stochastic drift element of the trend component. Cuevas finds that there is a strong association at the trend and cycle frequencies between real GDP and the real price of oil. This association is also robust in the presence of key economic policy variables. From 1970-80, when the underlying annual rate of increase of the real price of oil was 12 percent, the underlying annual rate of increase of potential GDP in Venezuela was 2.6 percent. By contrast, from 1981-2000 when the underlying rate of increase of the real price of oil was -5 percent, the underlying growth rate of potential GDP fell 1.5 percent. However, the strength of association between the underlying growth of oil prices and real GDP has fallen considerably since the early 1980s, suggesting that oil cannot be relied on as an engine for future growth in Venezuela. This paper"a product of the Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela Country Management Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region"is part of a larger effort in the region to encourage research on macroeconomic issues. The author may be contacted at mcuevas@@worldbank.org.

Using structural time series models, Cuevas estimates common stochastic trends of real GDP and imports in Venezuela from 1974-2000. The real imports trend drifts upward at almost twice the rate of growth of GDP. This highlights the powerful structural tendency toward increasing imports in Venezuela. The author also explicitly estimates common stochastic cycles, which he finds to have 5 and 17 year periods. In addition, he finds that a 1 percent real exchange rate appreciation leads to a 0.4 percent increase in imports. And in the long-run, 1 percent real GDP growth is associated with 1.7 percent real imports growth. The author also shows that the GDP elasticity of imports uniformly falls with cycle period, with the elasticity reaching 4.55 at the frequency associated with the 5-year cycle. A powerful imports responsiveness at the higher cycle frequency is associated with the recurrence of external imbalances in Venezuela.

Real GDP and oil prices are decomposed into common stochastic trend and cycle processes using structural time series models. Potential real GDP is represented by the level of the trend component of real GDP. The potential rate of growth of real GDP is represented by the stochastic drift element of the trend component. Cuevas finds that there is a strong association at the trend and cycle frequencies between real GDP and the real price of oil. This association is also robust in the presence of key economic policy variables. From 1970-80, when the underlying annual rate of increase of the real price of oil was 12 percent, the underlying annual rate of increase of potential GDP in Venezuela was 2.6 percent. By contrast, from 1981-2000 when the underlying rate of increase of the real price of oil was -5 percent, the underlying growth rate of potential GDP fell 1.5 percent. However, the strength of association between the underlying growth of oil prices and real GDP has fallen considerably since the early 1980s, suggesting that oil cannot be relied on as an engine for future growth in Venezuela. This paper - a product of the Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela Country Management Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to encourage research on macroeconomic issues.

From beautiful design details that inspire to pretty personal spaces you’ll want to call your own, this stunning volume from Veranda captures the allure of luxurious decorating. Learn all there is to know about creating a glorious home. VerandaDecorating takes you on an A–Z journey through the essentials of decorating, from “Antiques” and “Art” to “Zoning.” Dozens of spectacular photographs showcase sophisticated furnishings and design aesthetics, and this book—authored by Veranda Senior Editor Mario López-Cordero with a foreword by Clinton Smith, the magazine’s Editor in Chief—perfectly juxtaposes practical decorating advice alongside inspiring images of fabulous rooms, chic home accents, and more.

Colombian painter, draughtsman and sculptor Fernando Botero (born 1932) is probably the best-known Latin American artist working today. Fernando Botero: A Celebration is published to coincide with the biggest retrospective exhibition of the artist's career, and to celebrate his eightieth birthday. Botero was directly involved in the organization of the exhibition, which gives a complete, theme-based overview of his oeuvre, and features 100 or so of the artist's works from the last 65 years, most of which are from his own private collection. Largely self-taught, Botero had his first one-man show in Bogotá in 1951. His early influences--Italian fresco painting, the mural art of Diego Rivera and José Clemente Orozco and the painting of Rufino Tamayo and José Luis Cuevas--quickly receded as he began to develop a highly personal style, exploring themes ranging from everyday life in Colombia to historical figures, from the still life to the circus and bullfights. With their opulent forms, exuberant colors and vigorous composition full of tangible, life-affirming vitality, Botero's paintings are so immediately recognizable that they have even birthed a style known as "Boterismo." Fernando Botero: A Celebration is a superbly illustrated career overview of this popular and highly regarded artist.