HM Treasury Analysis
"This document assesses the immediate economic impact of a vote for the UK to leave the EU. A vote to leave would cause a profound economic shock creating instability and uncertainty which would be compounded by the complex and interdependent negotiations that would follow. The central conclusion of the analysis is that the effect of this profound shock would be to push the UK into recession and lead to a sharp rise in unemployment. Two scenarios have been modelled to provide analysis of the adverse impact on the economy: a 'shock' to the economy, and a 'severe shock'."--Detail.