Determining Portfolio Investments in Emerging Markets
This paper tries to add to the discussion on determinants for portflio investments, thereby focussing on long term trend factors that influence shifts in the overall patterns of capital flows. Its metodolgy builds upon the approach resented by Garbaldi, More et al, 2002, but uses a sample drawn out of the whole emerging market population. A direct adaption of the variables responsible for portfolio flows to transition economies was extended by two more potential factors and tested on significance for high or low portfolio inflows relative to the peer group in a frist step. In a second step, our data set was corrected for regional shocks and peculiarities and retested. The results yield clear evidence that investors do not carry out in depth fundamental research and that therefore shifts in trends can be traced back to more easily observable composite variables, namely indicators for macro stability, property right protection, security market infrastructure, relative market size and internal capital. Long-term effects were found to account for about 20% of the annual variation in inflow, which is consistent with the rich literature on short term effects, showing a respective contribution of 80%. We found a considerable amount of cross correlation among the variables, forcing us to label our variables indicators and leaving room for discussion on a common underlying determinant. Based on theory, we see evidence that this "lost determinant" could be "lack of trust in local markets" accompanied by strong market infrastructure which allows quick market exists and entries.