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The history of wars caused by misjudgments, from Napoleon’s invasion of Russia to America’s invasion of Iraq, reveals that leaders relied on cognitive models that were seriously at odds with objective reality. Blinders, Blunders, and Wars analyzes eight historical examples of strategic blunders regarding war and peace and four examples of decisions that turned out well, and then applies those lessons to the current Sino-American case.

The central objectives of U.S. strategy for the East Asia-Pacific region are to foster political stability, maintain access to regional markets, ensure freedom of navigation, and prevent the rise of any hostile hegemon. The United States seeks to ensure that no Asian nation's economic strength is translated into military power hostile to the United States. Forward deployed U.S. forces are a principal means of securing such an outcome. If the United States is to maintain a force presence once the North Korean threat is gone, it is essential to begin now to construct a new intellectual framework, build solid public support, and recast the U.S. long-term commitment in terms of power projection capability. The United States needs to harmonize its economic and security interests, with the clear understanding that emphasizing short term economic concerns over longer term security concerns risks achieving neither sustained economic growth nor enhanced security.

Argues for the creation of a new strategic concept for NATO, and a new agreement to solidify the relationships between its member nations.

A decade after the Berlin Wall was torn down and a new international system was born, the nature of that new system is not yet clear. It is a fluid and complex system that remains in evolution. But an evolution toward what? The past can tell us something about what might happen in the future if historical patterns can be discerned and applied to today's world. History shows that the fluidity in today's world has precedents in the early stages of each of the past five international systems. Each of those previous systems had a life cycle: there was a tendency for fluidity and multipolarity to turn into rigidity and bipolarity, with that bipolarity in turn resulting in large scale conflict (or a Cold War) and the demise of the existing international system. Most of the past systems developed before or during the Industrial Age. There are signs that history may be repeated in the Information Age-and it may be moving into a more bipolar and more dangerous stage.

When the last U.S. military element leaves Panama at noon on December 31, 1999, that departure may create a vacuum which could threaten the efficient operation of the canal and the regional security in the strategic median of the Western Hemisphere. Although the Neutrality Treaty, which continues in perpetuity, guarantees access to all vessels desiring transit of the canal on an equitable basis, the enforcement provisions are vague. The greatest fear is of the Colombianization of Panama. The U.S. departure would end almost a century of military presence on the isthmus, during which normal relations between the two countries have been at times harmonious; and at other times highly contentious-leading to the JUST CAUSE intervention in 1989. However, by 2000, the United States will "return" over $3.4 billion in lands and properties, which Panama has admitted may be beyond their capability to absorb and manage in an efficient manner. In September 1995, Presidents William Clinton and Ernesto Perez Balladares agreed to explore various options for a continued U.S. presence. Opinion is split in Panama and the United States, and the issue is being hotly debated.

The initial volume in this Strategic Rethink series, Choices for America in a Turbulent World, examined the most critical decisions the next president is likely to face, and thus likely to be debated during the 2016 election campaign. It covered two global issues, climate change and the world economy; assessed potential directions for national defense; evaluated issues related to counterterrorism and cybersecurity; and explored U.S. strategic choices in three key regions, Europe, the Middle East and South Asia, and East Asia.

This volume reveals to readers the impact of recent events on diplomacy a year or so into the post-Cold War world, describing disintegration in the East, integration in the West, new relations with old allies, changes in the Third World, and multilateral diplomacy.

In the face of growing difficulties for U.S. regime change policies in the Middle East, analysts and policy makers are considering the viability of returning to a set of policies with a greater emphasis on the status quo. A great deal of thought must be given to determining exactly how these two imperatives are to be blended together in the interests not only of overall policy coherence, but also to actually achieve the goals being sought. Serious analysis, rather than reliance on simplistic formulas, is needed. Without pretending to solve the myriad foreign policy dilemmas facing the United States and its allies, this paper offers a framework for how this analysis can be conducted, and where it can lead. The perspective is global, but along the way, insights are offered on the Middle East.