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In most cases, push. Lower international interest rates are a key factor in the new wave of capital inflows to developing countries. Whether that wave is sustainable depends on the economic performance of industrial countries. This makes developing countries vulnerable - but a soft landing is feasible.

This empirical study finds that while debt reduction and policy reforms in debtor countries have been important determinants of renewed access to international capital markets, changes in international interest rates have been the dominant factor. We calculate the effects of changes in international interest rates for a 'typical' debtor country. We conclude that increases in interest rates associated with business cycle upturn in industrial countries could depress the secondary market prices of existing debt to levels inconsistent with continued capital inflows.

A model of the determinants of negotiated commercial sovereign debt payments in an import- dependent economy subject to foreign exchange and fiscal constraints.

An analysis of the five recent debt-reduction agreements shows that the menu approach achieved debt reduction at substantially lower costs than a comparable market-based operation. But indirect benefits, or efficiency gains associated with debt reduction, are necessary to make the operation benefit the debtor.