Cross-Border Risks of a Global Economy in Mid-Transition
By Etienne Espagne, William Oman, Jean-François Mercure, Romain Svartzman, Ulrich Volz, Hector Pollitt, Gregor Semieniuk, Emanuele Campiglio
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This paper analyzes the cross-border risks that could result from a decarbonization of the world economy. We develop a typology of cross-border risks and their respective channels. Our qualitative and quantitative scenario analysis suggests that the mid-transition – a period during which fossil-fuel and low-carbon energy systems co-exist and transform at a rapid pace – could have profound stability and resilience implications for global trade and the international financial system.