Future Warfare

We stand at the brink of a new century as well as a new millennium. The pace of technological change is steadily accelerating, while the strategic environment remains opaque and uncertain. Once again the United States is between major wars. Yet, the current period is not the first time the American military have confronted an inter-war period. Between 1919 and 1941 the services developed a wide range of capabilities from carrier aviation and amphibious warfare to combined arms tactics that stood the country well in the terrible conflict that followed the bombing of Pearl Harbor. Similarly, in the inter-war periods between 1953 and 1965, and 1973 and 1991, the American military confronted a wide disparity of challenges. Again, the development of airmobile and then air-land battle underlined the importance of peacetime innovation to battlefield performance. If we cannot predict where the next war will occur or what form it will take, there are some things for which the American military can prepare as they enter the next millennium. Obviously, the services have to prepare the physical condition and training of soldiers, marines, sailors, and airmen. But equally important, they must prepare the minds of the next generation of military leaders to handle the challenges of the battlefield. And that mental preparation will be more important than all the technological wizardry U.S. forces can bring to bear in combat. Most important in that intellectual preparation must be a recognition of what will not change: the fundamental nature of war, the fact that fog, friction, ambiguity, and uncertainty will dominate the battlefields of the future just as they have those of the past.