Influencing Adversary States

In this report, the authors describe an experimental "thinking-Red" approach to analysis, wargaming, and other exercises that may help inform strategies to avoid aggression or escalation in a crisis. This thinking-Red approach focuses on how to influence an adversary's reasoning in ways that the decisionmaker regards as favorable. It does so with alternative models of the adversary. An influence strategy might involve a mix of deterrence by threat of punishment, deterrence by denial, dissuasion by many means, reassurances, and incentives. Deterrent threats alone will seldom constitute effective strategy and, depending on the adversary's motivations and perceptions, could even be counterproductive. A successful strategy will also often require artful orchestration of political, military, and economic instruments of power. The approach can be applied to (1) diverse potential adversaries, (2) both direct and gray-zone conflicts, and (3) different levels of crisis, conflict or competition. Each of the three applications will require an in-depth study of substantive issues and refining methods and tools, but the potential scope of applications is wide.