Estimated Macroeconomic Impacts of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Of 2009

Here is a year-by-year estimate of the economic effects of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA, Public Law 111-5), which was enacted on February 17, 2009. Taking all of the short- and long-run effects into account, the legislation implies an increase in GDP relative to a baseline forecast of between 1.4 percent and 3.8 percent by the fourth quarter of 2009, between 1.1 percent and 3.4 percent by the fourth quarter of 2010, between 0.4 percent and 1.2 percent by the fourth quarter of 2011, and declining amounts in later years. Beyond 2015, the legislation is estimated to reduce GDP by between zero and 0.2 percent. Tables and graphs.