A Synopsis of Known and Potential Diseases and Parasites Associated with Climate Change

Current climate change models for Ontario predict that mean annual temperature will increase by up to 3°C over the next century. Temperatures are expected to increase more in winter than in summer, with an increase in frost-free days, and to increase more in northern than southern latitudes. Minimum temperatures should increase more than maximum temperatures. Precipitation, although somewhat unpredictable, is expected to increase in Ontario, but increased evaporation and transpiration due to warmer temperatures will likely result in drier conditions, particularly during the summer growing seasons. If Ontario's climate changes as predicted, many human, animal and plant diseases that are affected by climate will also change in range, intensity, and/or a variety of other ways, in turn affecting the health and well-being of people, animals and plants in Ontario. This report identifies which diseases are likely to be affected by climate and which human, animal, and plant groups are most vulnerable to them. It also provides recommendations for changing disease management strategies and practices to mitigate the effects of climate change. Because we cannot predict precisely how climate change will affect disease and because the predicted changes may occur at a relatively fast pace, we must improve our knowledge base and our response capability at local, regional and national levels to maintain current levels of health. Doing so will enable us to face the coming challenges, adapt to them, learn from them, and protect Ontario's communities and ecosystems.