Withdrawal from Iraq

Iraq and the US face a critical transition during the period through 2011 and beyond. There is still a war to finish, but this is only part of the challenge both countries face. No one can be certain whether Iraq can achieve a stable level of political accommodation to deal with its internal problems. Iran seeks to expand it's influence, and Turkey will not tolerate a sanctuary for hostile Kurdish movements like the PKK. Arab support for Iraq remains weak, and Iraq's Arab neighbors fear both Shi'ite dominance and what that could mean in terms of Iran's role in Syria and Lebanon as well as Iraq. Even if it moves forward towards stability and political accommodation and largely ends the insurgency, it will be extremely difficult for Iraq to develop all of the security capabilities it needs for even the counterinsurgency mission before the full US withdrawal scheduled to take place by the end of 2011. This could force the US to hand over responsibility to the Iraqi Security Forces before these forces are fully able to do the job. It could also force the US to withdraw prematurely the US trainers and partner units that the IRS needs to secure the country and defend it from any threat from it's neighbors. ... Dealing with these issues will be a critical priority for the US for at least half a decade to come.