The Role of Family Planning Programs in Contemporary Fertility Transitions

The implementation of family planning programs has been the principal population policy instrument in the developing world over the past few decades. This paper reviews that controversy over the role these programs have played in reducing fertility. Opposing views on a number of contentious issues (for example, the significance of unmet need and unwanted fertility) are summarized and a consensus position is presented. Surprisingly, recent estimates of the fertility reductions achievable through the implementation of strong family planning programs differ only modestly--from 1 to 1.4 births per woman. Since only a small proportion of countries have implemented strong programs, the (unweighted) average impact of programs in 1985-90 is estimated at only 0.33 births per woman. However, the (weighted) average, which gives the program impact for the developing world as a whole, is estimated at 0.96 births per woman in the late 1980s. This suggests that programs have been responsible for about 43% of the fertility decline in the developing world between 1960-65 and 1985-90.